如何科学认识当前中国经济增长动力源泉与改革突破口

• 作者： 张杰 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  中国人民大学中国经济改革与发展研究院
• 发布时间：2024-06-05

摘要: 当前中国经济增长的支撑动力机制究竟是依靠消费驱动还是依靠投资驱动，这不仅成为影响当前中国各级政府政策制定者经济发展决策的核心问题，也成为构建中国自主知识体系的一个重要基础性研究问题。在构建供给侧和需求侧结构决定下的中国经济潜在增速水平理论框架的基础上，提出了“投资需求和消费需求的短中期融合机制支撑中国经济中高速增长”理论假说，以及当前发展阶段投资和消费之间的重要联动和传导机制。将之归纳为：(1)以制造业为主实体经济部门转型升级蕴含的高质量投资扩张→创造高收入就业岗位→中等收入群体增加→中高端消费需求扩张的传导机制；(2)产业企业部门以自主创新能力提升主导的研发投入扩张→创造中高收入就业岗位→中等收入群体增加→中高端消费需求扩张的传导机制；(3)以创新为主的基础设施投资需求→创造高收入就业岗位→中等收入群体增加→中高端消费需求扩张的传导机制。基于束缚和阻碍当前中国“投资需求消费需求”良性循环机制形成的突出因素，可采取相应的重点改革突破口和关键政策举措。

Abstract: The current driving mechanism behind China’s economic growth,whether it is consumer-driven or investment-driven,is not only a core issue for Chinese economic policymakers but also a foundational question in constructing an independent knowledge system for China.Building upon a theoretical framework that combines supply-side and demand-side structures to understand China’s potential growth,this paper proposes a theoretical hypothesis: “a short-to-medium-term fusion mechanism between investment and consumption will support China’s economy to achieve a high-speed growth.” The analysis focuses on the significant interactions between investment and consumption in today’s China.These mechanisms can be summarized as follows: 1.Capital expenditure in the manufacturing industry for transformation and upgradation→ the creation of high-income employment opportunities → an increase in the middle-income population → the expansion of demand for consumption.2.R & D expenditure increase → the creation of high-income employment opportunities → an increase in the middle-income population → the expansion of demand for consumption.3.Infrastructure investment activity for Innovation-driven economy → the creation of high-income employment opportunities→ an increase in the middle-income population → the expansion of demand for consumption.Based on a comprehensive analysis of the prominent factors currently constraining the formation of a beneficial investment-consumption cycle in China,this article concludes by identifying potential breakthroughs for reform and providing relevant policy recommendations.

• 分类： 应用经济学 >> 国民经济学
• 说明： “当代中国经济研究”专栏
• 稿件状态： 已在期刊出版
期刊名称： 《学术月刊》 2024年 第4期 “当代中国经济研究”专栏
• 转载期刊： 复印报刊资料《国民经济管理》 2024年 第8期
• 引用： PSSXiv:202406.00182 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202406.00182V1)
  DOI:10.12451/202406.00182
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv.202406.00182
• 推荐引用方式： 张杰.如何科学认识当前中国经济增长动力源泉与改革突破口.学术月刊,2024(4).[PSSXiv:202406.00182V1] (点此复制)