基于细分产品测度美国关税加征对中国出口的影响

• 作者： 朱小磊 ¹ 易荣华 ¹ 吴峻辉 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  中国计量大学经济与管理学院
• 通讯作者： 易荣华 
• 发布时间：2024-09-27

摘要: 本文通过自然排除新冠疫情影响的2017—2019年36期HS2出口数据及美国4张关税加征清单，运用多期双重差分和连续双重差分模型测度了关税加征对中国出口金额的影响。结果表明，加征关税导致中国出口美国的金额下降20.75%，其边际负效应为1.43%，该边际负效应明显低于以往研究结果。动态效应检验发现，关税加征负效应随着时间推移而逐步加深，并可能存在政策效应滞后性。理论启示：进一步明确了经典关税传递理论，一国对另一国具体商品加征关税会导致其出口金额下降，带来负面效应和边际负面效应。

Abstract: Based on the 36-month HS2 export data from 2017 to 2019 that naturally exclude the impact of COVID-19 and four lists of tariff increases imposed by the United States, this paper measures the impact of the tariff increase on China's export volume using multi-period diff erence-in-diff erences and continuous diff erence-in-diff erences models. The results show that the tariff increase resulted in a 20.75% reduction in China's exports to the United States, with a marginal negative eff ect of 1.43%, signifi cantly lower than that reported in earlier research. Through the dynamic eff ect test, it is observed that the negative eff ect of tariff increase progressively intensifi es over time, with a potential delay in the policy's eff ectiveness. Theoretical implication: This research off ers greater clarity regarding the classical tariff pass-through theory. It substantiates the notion that when one country increases the tariff on specific commodities from another country, a decrease will be caused in the export value of those commodities, bringing a negative eff ect and marginal negative eff ect.

• 分类： 应用经济学 >> 国际贸易学
• 稿件状态： 已在期刊出版
期刊名称： 《中国商论》 2024年 第9期
• 引用： PSSXiv:202409.02257 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202409.02257V1)
  DOI:10.19699/j.cnki.issn2096-0298.2024.09.053
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv.202409.02257
• 推荐引用方式： 朱小磊,易荣华,吴峻辉.基于细分产品测度美国关税加征对中国出口的影响.中国商论,2024(9).[DOI:10.19699/j.cnki.issn2096-0298.2024.09.053] (点此复制)