中孟自由贸易区的贸易效应评估——基于动态 GTAP 模型的模拟

• 作者： 李惠敏 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  中国计量大学经济与管理学院
• 发布时间：2024-10-17

摘要: 为全面评估中国—孟加拉国自由贸易协定的可行性及经济效应，本文基于2011—2022年中孟双边贸易的详细数据，从政治、经济两个方面分析中孟自贸区的建立基础，并运用GTAP模型评估中孟自贸区的贸易效应。结果表明：建立中孟自贸区可为两国带来明显的正向贸易效应，但需重点关注关税和非关税下降对孟加拉国的贸易条件带来的不良影响；总体来看，不同的开放设定对两国宏观层面的指标影响存在差异，同时由于两国要素禀赋不同，中孟两国产业所受影响具有非对称性，建立自贸区对两国部分产业有一定的不利冲击。文章基于上述结论给出相应对策，以期为中孟自贸区的建立提供理论支持和政策参考。

Abstract: To comprehensively assess the feasibility and economic effects of the China-Bangladesh Free Trade Agreement, this paper analyzes the foundation for establishing the China-Bangladesh Free Trade Zone from both political and economic perspectives, based on detailed bilateral trade data from 2011 to 2022. Additionally, the GTAP model is employed to evaluate the trade eff ects of the proposed free trade zone. The results show that: the establishment of China- Bangladesh FTA can bring obvious positive trade effects for the two countries, but we need to focus on the adverse eff ects of tariff and non-tariff decline on the terms of trade of Bangladesh; in general, there are diff erences in the impact of different opening settings on the macro-level indicators of the two countries. At the same time, due to the factor endowment of the two countries is diff erent, the impact of the industries of the two countries has an asymmetric eff ect, and the establishment of FTA has a certain adverse impact on the two countries’ some of the industries. The establishment of FTZ has certain adverse impacts on some industries of the two countries. Based on the above conclusions, this paper gives corresponding countermeasures to provide theoretical support and policy reference for the establishment of China- Bangladesh FTA.

• 分类： 应用经济学 >> 国际贸易学
• 稿件状态： 已在期刊出版
• 引用： PSSXiv:202410.01484 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202410.01484V1)
  DOI:10.19699/j.cnki.issn2096-0298.2024.18.063
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv.202410.01484
• 推荐引用方式： 李惠敏.中孟自由贸易区的贸易效应评估——基于动态 GTAP 模型的模拟,2024(18).[DOI:10.19699/j.cnki.issn2096-0298.2024.18.063] (点此复制)