中国货币政策对周边发达国家的溢出效应

• 作者： 徐俊瀚 ¹ 夏李莹 ¹ 汪梓豪 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  嘉兴南湖学院
• 发布时间：2024-10-21

摘要: 作为世界第二经济大国，中国的货币政策会对其他国家产生外溢性，特别是对于周边发达国家，文章基于PVAR模型，对中国货币政策的利率、货币供应量两个传导渠道进行了深入分析。研究发现，中国宏观经济政策对周边发达国家产出水平、物价水平和汇率均存在溢出效应，通过不同渠道对周边国家经济产出及价格水平产生的影响存在异质性。在大多情况下，与价值型货币政策相比，数量型货币政策带来的不良影响更为显著。未来，中国应持续推进货币制度改革，合理选择“双赢”的货币政策手段，在达成国内货币政策目标的同时，并对周边先进国家的经济产生正面效应，进而推动双方共同向前发展。

Abstract: The monetary policy of China, the second largest economy in the world, will have spillover effect on other countries, especially the developed countries. Based on the PVAR model, this paper analyzes the two transmission channels of China’s monetary policy, interest rate and money supply. It is found that China’s macroeconomic policies have spillover eff ects on the output level, price level, and exchange rate of the surrounding developed countries, and the impact on the economic output and price level of the surrounding countries through diff erent channels is heterogeneous. And in most cases, the negative eff ects of quantitative monetary policy are more pronounced than those of value monetary policy.In the future, China should continue to advance monetary system reforms and strategically choose currency policy measures that result in a "win-win" outcome. By doing so, China can achieve its domestic monetary policy objectives while also positively impacting the economies of neighboring advanced countries. This will facilitate mutual development and progress for both sides.

• 分类： 应用经济学 >> 金融学
• 稿件状态： 已在期刊出版
期刊名称： 《中国商论》 2024年 第6期
• 引用： PSSXiv:202410.01802 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202410.01802V1)
  DOI:10.19699/j.cnki.issn2096-0298.2024.06.017
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv202410.01802
• 推荐引用方式： 徐俊瀚,夏李莹,汪梓豪.中国货币政策对周边发达国家的溢出效应.中国商论,2024(6).[DOI:10.19699/j.cnki.issn2096-0298.2024.06.017] (点此复制)