“一把钥匙开一把锁”？：工程师红利跨越国家“中等收入陷阱”的机制路径研究

• 作者： 汪小龙 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  天津大学
• 通讯作者： 汪小龙 
• 发布时间：2024-11-29

摘要: 针对“工程师红利”对于经济体跨越“中等收入陷阱”的机制路径问题，基于科技创新理论与产业价值链理论，依据1962-2023年间世界206个经济体的宏观经济数据，运用固定效应、中介效应、逐步回归，以及双重差分等实证模型，构建工程师红利与产业高级化影响跨越中等收入陷阱的分析框架，揭示工程师红利与经济增长之间的相关关系，并提出产业高级化作为工程师红利影响经济增长的中介机制，研究发现：（1）工程师红利通过促进技术创新、人力资本积累和知识溢出效应，提高生产效率和产品质量，增强企业的国际竞争力。（2）产业高级化在工程师红利与经济增长之间起到部分中介作用，特别是在已经陷入中等收入陷阱的经济体中，产业高级化的作用尤为关键。（3）老龄化、城镇化和私营化等异质性因素，对工程师红利的影响效应存在差异。高老龄化、高城镇化和高私营化的经济体，工程师红利跨越中等收入陷阱的作用程度更为明显。研究结论为教育改革、研发投入、市场环境优化等措施，释放工程师红利潜力，促进产业结构高级化，进而帮助经济体跨越中等收入陷阱提供理论基础与实践指引。

Abstract: This study addresses the mechanism through which the "engineers’ dividend" helps economies overcome the "middle-income trap." Based on the theory of technological innovation and industrial value chain theory, and using macroeconomic data from 206 economies worldwide between 1962 and 2023, this study employs fixed effects, mediating effects, stepwise regression, and difference-in-differences empirical models to construct an analytical framework for the impact of engineers’ dividend and industrial upgrading on overcoming the middle-income trap. The study reveals the correlation between the engineers’ dividend and economic growth and proposes industrial upgrading as a mediating mechanism for the influence of the engineers’ dividend on economic growth. The findings are as follows: (1) The engineers’ dividend enhances production efficiency and product quality by promoting technological innovation, human capital accumulation, and knowledge spillover effects, thereby strengthening the international competitiveness of enterprises. (2) Industrial upgrading plays a partial mediating role between the engineers’ dividend and economic growth, especially in economies that have already fallen into the middle-income trap, where the role of industrial upgrading is particularly critical. (3) Heterogeneous factors such as aging, urbanization, and privatization have varying effects on the impact of the engineers’ dividend. In economies with high levels of aging, urbanization, and privatization, the role of the engineers’ dividend in overcoming the middle-income trap is more pronounced. The conclusions of this study provide a theoretical basis and practical guidance for measures such as educational reform, R&D investment, and market environment optimization to unleash the potential of the engineers’ dividend, promote the upgrading of industrial structures, and thereby help economies overcome the middle-income trap.

• 来自： 汪小龙
• 分类： 工商管理学 >> 技术经济及管理
• 稿件状态： 已投稿期刊
• 引用： PSSXiv:202411.02291 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202411.02291V1)
  DOI:10.12451/202411.02291
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv.202411.02291
• 推荐引用方式： 汪小龙.“一把钥匙开一把锁”？：工程师红利跨越国家“中等收入陷阱”的机制路径研究.哲学社会科学预印本平台:https://zsyyb.cn/abs/202411.02291.[PSSXiv:202411.02291V1] (点此复制)