货币政策对消费市场的影响研究——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型

• 作者： 韩琳 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  沈阳工业大学
• 发布时间：2025-03-07

摘要: 为了促进经济增长，稳定通货膨胀，增加就业以及平衡国际收支，货币政策已被世界上许多国家和地区广泛采用。本文采用理论结合实证分析的方法，对国内外主要理论与实证研究进行了总结，阐述了货币政策对宏观经济产生的相关影响，通过使用银行间七天同业拆借利率和中国消费者总指数来代表消费市场的走势，探究货币政策与消费市场之间的关系，研究其中的关联与内在问题。本文建立向量自回归模型(TVP-SV-VAR),分析了货币供应量、七天Shibor和中国消费价格指数三者间的动态时变性。研究发现，货币供给增发会对银行间同业拆借利率和中国消费者总指数造成一定的影响和冲击，进而导致消费市场产生变化。基于此，我们应发挥货币政策的功效，进一步深化利率市场化改革，畅通货币政策传导路径，使其对消费市场产生正面积极的影响。

Abstract: To promote economic growth, stabilize inflation, increase employment, and balance international payments, monetary policy has been widely adopted by many countries and regions around the world. This paper uses a combination of theoretical and empirical analysis to summarize key domestic and international theories and empirical studies, illustrating the relevant impacts of monetary policy on the macroeconomy. By using the interbank seven-day repo rate and the China Consumer Price Index (CPI) to represent the trends in the consumer market, the paper explores the relationship between monetary policy and the consumer market, examining the connections and underlying issues involved. This article establishes a Time-Varying Parameter Stochastic Volatility Vector Autoregressive (TVP-SV-VAR) model to analyze the dynamic time-varying nature among money supply, 7-day Shibor, and the Chinese Consumer Price Index. The research reveals that an increase in money supply issuance affects the interbank repo rate and the Chinese Consumer Price Index, subsequently impacting the consumer market. Based on these fi ndings, it is crucial to leverage the eff ectiveness of monetary policy, further deepen interest rate marketization reforms, streamline the transmission channels of monetary policy, and ensure its positive impact on the consumer market.

• 分类： 应用经济学 >> 金融学
• 稿件状态： 已在期刊出版
期刊名称： 《中国商论》 2024年 第24期
• 引用： PSSXiv:202503.00365 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202503.00365V1)
  DOI:10.19699/j.cnki.issn2096-0298.2024.24.126
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv.202503.00365
• 推荐引用方式： 韩琳.货币政策对消费市场的影响研究——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型.中国商论,2024(24).[DOI:10.19699/j.cnki.issn2096-0298.2024.24.126] (点此复制)