家庭观念、收入、育儿照料与青年生育意愿

• 作者： 胡毅 ¹ 邓国文 ² 闫辰珂 ³
• 作者单位：
  1.  重庆科技大学经济与金融学院

  2.  重庆师范大学历史与社会学院

  3.  华东理工大学社会与公共管理学院
• 通讯作者： 闫辰珂 
• 发布时间：2025-03-26

摘要: 当前我国生育率持续走低，人口负增长态势延续，生育意愿的研究愈发重要。基于接合行动理论框架，本研究同时使用以个体、省份分层的双层混合效应模型和模糊集QCA分析方法对中国综合社会调查（CGSS2021）中关于生育意愿模块的调查实验数据进行分析。研究发现，无论是在回归模型的分析中，还是QCA分析中，收入因素始终是影响生育意愿最重要的因素，且收入越高，生育意愿则越高；在家庭观念层面，家族传统主义能够显著正向预测生育意愿，子女中心主义在回归模型中并不显著，但在QCA分析中，偏向子女中心主义的青年可能会由于在收入、育儿照料上的多重考量，最终做出一个为子女更有利的生育决定；另外，祖辈帮助照料与周边托育服务的优质供给都能够显著提升青年群体的生育意愿。总之，本研究为何以营造全社会尊重生育、支持生育的良好氛围，让青年敢生愿生提供了新的机制解释与理论视角。

Abstract: At present, China’s fertility rate continues to be low, and the negative population growth trend continues, so the study of fertility intentions is becoming more and more important. Based on the theory of conjunctural action framework, this study analyzes the survey experimental data on the fertility intention module of the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS2021) using both a two-tier mixed-effects model stratified by individual and province, and a fuzzy set QCA analysis. It was found that the income factor was always the most important factor influencing fertility intentions, both in the analysis of the regression model and the QCA analysis, and the higher the income, the higher the fertility intentions; at the level of Family Concepts, traditionalism was able to significantly and positively predict the fertility intentions, and Child-Centrism was not significant in the regression model, but in the QCA analysis, youths favoring Child-Centrism might be more likely to have a child due to the multiple considerations on income and childcare, and ultimately make a childbearing decision that is more favorable for their children; at the same time, grandparents’ help in caring and the quality supply of childcare services in the vicinity can significantly increase the fertility intentions of the youth group. In conclusion, this study provides a new mechanism and theoretical perspective on how to create a favorable atmosphere of respect and support for childbearing in the whole society, so that young people dare to have children and are willing to do so.

• 来自： 胡毅
• 分类： 社会学 >> 人口学 社会学 >> 社会学
• 稿件状态： 已投稿期刊
• 引用： PSSXiv:202503.00704 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202503.00704V2)
  DOI:10.12451/202503.00704
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv202503.00704
• 推荐引用方式： 胡毅,邓国文,闫辰珂.家庭观念、收入、育儿照料与青年生育意愿.哲学社会科学预印本平台:https://zsyyb.cn/abs/202503.00704.[PSSXiv:202503.00704V2] (点此复制)