政府公共支出、贴现因子与耐心资本投资

• 作者： 龚六堂 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  武汉大学高级研究中心，北京大学光华管理学院
• 发布时间：2025-03-25

摘要: 基于可变贴现因子模型，可研究耐心程度对资本积累的促进作用、耐心程度的提升如何推动资本存量的增加与经济增长以及相关机制。进一步地，可考察政府公共支出如何有效提升社会耐心程度，从而促进耐心资本的积累。研究表明：（1）耐心程度的提高可以有效增加资本存量的积累，进而提升长期经济增长率；（2）耐心程度的提升通过促进创新投入和人力资本积累，进一步推动经济增长；（3）在传统的内生贴现因子模型中，政府公共支出促进消费和资本存量增长存在两难困境，而政府公共支出影响贴现因子的模型能够避免这一问题。因此，政府公共支出可以通过影响社会预期，增强整体耐心水平，从而推动私人部门资本的进一步积累。研究提出的具体政策建议，旨在提升耐心程度并促进经济增长。

Abstract: This paper explores the role of patience in capital accumulation within a variable discount factor model,systematically examining how an increase in patience can drive the growth of capital stock and economic growth,while analyzing the underlying mechanisms.Furthermore,the paper investigates how government public spending can effectively enhance social patience,thereby promoting the accumulation of patience capital.The findings are as follows:(1)An increase in patience can effectively boost capital stock accumulation,leading to a higher long-term economic growth rate;(2)Patience enhancement drives economic growth through the promotion of innovation investment and human capital accumulation;(3)In traditional endogenous discount factor models,there exists a dilemma regarding the role of government public spending in promoting both consumption and capital stock growth.However,a model in which government spending affects the discount factor can avoid this issue.Therefore,government public spending can influence societal expectations,increase the overall level of patience,and thus further promote the accumulation of private sector capital.Finally,the paper offers specific policy recommendations to enhance patience and foster economic growth.

• 分类： 应用经济学 >> 国民经济学
• 稿件状态： 已在期刊出版
期刊名称： 《学术月刊》 2025年 第3期 “当代中国经济研究”专栏
• 引用： PSSXiv:202503.02790 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202503.02790V1)
  DOI:10.12451/202503.02790
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv.202503.02790
• 推荐引用方式： 龚六堂.政府公共支出、贴现因子与耐心资本投资.学术月刊,2025(3).[PSSXiv:202503.02790V1] (点此复制)