“一带一路”沿线地区贸易网络韧性研究

• 作者： 陈  伟 ^1,2 王芯芮 ³ 龙  燕 ³ 赵晞泉 ^1,2 刘志高 ^1,2
• 作者单位：
  1.  中国科学院 地理科学与资源研究所/区域可持续发展分析与模拟实验室

  2.  中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院

  3.  华东师范大学 地理科学学院
• 通讯作者： 刘志高 
• 发布时间：2024-06-21

摘要: 文章借鉴复杂网络理论内涵，综合运用多种网络分析方法，构建测度贸易网络韧性的分析框架，从节点韧性和结构韧性2个维度对“一带一路”沿线地区贸易网络韧性开展综合测度，探讨其演变过程、发展特征和趋向。研究发现：①“一带一路”沿线各国贸易联系日趋紧密，贸易网络密度不断提升，不均衡态势逐渐显现，贸易网络拓扑结构呈现由松散向紧密发展、由多极向单极演变的趋势；②“一带一路”沿线地区贸易网络节点韧性具有明显异质性，并处于动态演化中，逐渐形成以中国、俄罗斯、印度、土耳其等国家为强韧核心的贸易格局；③综合考虑连通性、抗毁性、恢复性和稳健性4个维度，随着时间演化，“一带一路”沿线地区贸易网络结构韧性有所提升，网络结构异质性不断增强。未来，需进一步强化沿线国家间经贸合作，提升贸易网络连通性和稳健性，促进“一带一路”沿线地区贸易畅通走向更高水平和更宽维度。

Abstract: On the basis of complex network theory,this paper uses various network analysis methods to build an analytical framework for measuring the trade network resilience,and conducts a comprehensive measurement of the trade network resilience in regions along the Belt and Road from two dimensions of node resilience and structural resilience,and explores the evolution process and development trend. The conclusions are as follows: 1) The trade links are getting closer in countries(regions) along the Belt and Road,the trade network density is increasing,the unbalanced situation is gradually emerging,and the trade network topology is changing from loose to close,and from multipolar to unipolar. 2) The node resilience of the trade network has evident heterogeneity in countries(regions) along the Belt and Road and is in dynamic evolution,it gradually forms a trade pattern with China,Russia,India,Turkey,and other countries as the strong core. 3) Considering the four dimensions of connectivity,invulnerability,recovery and robustness,the structural resilience of the trade network has been improved in countries(regions) along the Belt and Road,and the network structure heterogeneity has been enhanced. Therefore,in the future,it is necessary to strengthen further the economic and trade cooperation among the countries(regions) along the Belt and Road, enhance the connectivity and robustness of the trade network,and promote the trade interconnectivity to a higher level and broader dimension.

• 分类： 地理学 >> 人文地理学
• 稿件状态： 已在期刊出版
期刊名称： 《经济地理》 2024年 第1期 “区域经济与理论方法”专栏
• 引用： PSSXiv:202406.00403 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202406.00403V1)
  DOI:10.12451/202406.00403
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv.202406.00403
• 推荐引用方式： 陈  伟,王芯芮,龙  燕,赵晞泉,刘志高.“一带一路”沿线地区贸易网络韧性研究.经济地理,2024(1).[PSSXiv:202406.00403V1] (点此复制)