江苏省徐州市人口变化对经济增长影响的实证研究

• 作者： 夏永红 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  江苏师范大学商学院
• 发布时间：2024-10-22

摘要: 本文分析江苏省徐州市人口增长、人口流动和人口结构特征，表明徐州市进入人口负增长时代，老龄人口抚养比不断提高。实证检验人口自然增长率和人口流动率对徐州市经济增长的影响，实证结果显示：徐州市人口自然增长率和人口流动率每提高一个单位，徐州市经济增长率分别提高1.0692和4.5565个单位。为实现徐州市经济高质量发展，本文提出优化人口发展的对策建议，即转变家庭生育观念，完善社会服务支持体系；释放老年人力资本，积极应对人口老龄化；加强人口素质教育，获取劳动人口质量红利；把握人口流动性特征，引进并留住海内外人才。

Abstract: This article analyzes the population growth, population mobility and population, structure characteristics in Xuzhou City, Jiangsu Province, indicating that Xuzhou has entered an era of negative population growth, and the dependency ratio of the elderly population has been increasing. The empirical test of the impact of the natural population growth rate and the population mobility rate on the economic growth of Xuzhou shows that the economic growth rate of Xuzhou increased by 1.0692 and 4.5565 units respectively for every unit increase in the natural population growth rate and the population mobility rate of Xuzhou. In order to realize the high-quality development of Xuzhou’s economy, this article puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions to optimize population development, namely, changing the fertility concept and improving the social service support system; releasing the elderly human capital and actively responding to the population aging; strengthening population quality education and obtaining the quality dividend of the working population; grasping the characteristics of population mobility, introducing and retaining talents at home and abroad.

• 分类： 应用经济学 >> 区域经济学
• 稿件状态： 已在期刊出版
期刊名称： 《中国商论》 2024年 第3期
• 引用： PSSXiv:202410.01971 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202410.01971V1)
  DOI:10.19699/j.cnki.issn2096-0298.2024.03.146
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv.202410.01971
• 推荐引用方式： 夏永红.江苏省徐州市人口变化对经济增长影响的实证研究.中国商论,2024(3).[DOI:10.19699/j.cnki.issn2096-0298.2024.03.146] (点此复制)