RCEP双向直接投资网络韧性演化及其效应

• 作者： 程成 ¹ 王云龙 ¹ 蒋云英 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  广西大学 中国—东盟经济学院
• 通讯作者： 王云龙 
• 发布时间：2024-10-23

摘要: 文章以RCEP 15个成员国为研究对象，探讨RCEP双向直接投资网络生长特征、网络韧性演化过程和国别节点韧性格局，并运用指数随机图模型分析了网络韧性演化效应。结果表明：①RCEP双向直接投资网络生长相对立体且异配性特征显著，完备且多元的成员国类型组成是其网络韧性演化的关键。②整体投资网络发展具有明显的适应性演进特征，具体表现出以扩大投资规模来恢复与发展、以加强资金同步来调整与抵御的适应发展历程，最终呈现“核心强韧—边缘疏松”的网络韧性结构。③RCEP区域内“自我加速”效应与第三方效应共同内生驱动投资网络韧性演化；市场开放程度、制度环境和劳动力质量等为主要外生驱动力，国家身份认同、税负差异以及高科技出口差异为辅助外生驱动力；双边贸易协定关系、殖民历史关系正向耦合嵌入促进投资韧性演化，而不满足经济发展要求的低效投资关系将持续受到地理距离的限制。

Abstract: Taking 15 RCEP member countries as the research objects,this article discusses the growth characteristics of a two-way direct investment network between RCEP member countries,the evolution process of their network resilience and their resilience pattern of national nodes. It uses the Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM) to analyze the evolution effects of network resilience. The results show that: 1) The growth of the two-way direct investment network between RCEP member countries is relatively stereoscopic and the characteristics of heterogeneity are significant. The complete and diverse composition of member countries is the endowment advantage of RCEP,which is the key to the evolution of the network resilience. 2) The development of the overall investment network has obvious characteristics of adaptive evolution,which specifically shows the adaptive development process of restoring and developing by expanding the investment scale,adjusting and resisting by strengthening the synchronization of funds,and finally presents the network resilience structure of "strong core-loose edge". 3) The "self-accelerating" effect of investment accumulation within the RCEP area,together with third-party effects,endogenously drives the evolution of the investment network resilience. Countries with competitive advantages such as open market,institutional environment,and labor quality have significant investment tendency,which is the main exogenous driving force for the evolution of investment resilience. In addition,national identity,tax burden differences and high-tech export differences as auxiliary exogenous driving forces play a role in the coordination of investment resilience. Bilateral trade agreement relationships and colonial historical relationships are positively coupled and embedded to influence the evolution of investment resilience,while inefficient investment relations that do not meet the requirements of economic development or fail to pass the test of international market will continue to be limited by geographical distance.

• 分类： 地理学 >> 人文地理学
• 稿件状态： 已在期刊出版
期刊名称： 《经济地理》 2024年 第7期 “区域经济与理论方法”专栏
• 引用： PSSXiv:202410.02114 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202410.02114V1)
  DOI:10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2024.07.004
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv.202410.02114
• 推荐引用方式： 程成,王云龙,蒋云英.RCEP双向直接投资网络韧性演化及其效应.经济地理,2024(7).[DOI:10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2024.07.004] (点此复制)