多因素对中国儿童人口比例的联动效应

• 作者： 覃诚 ¹ 王雪薏 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  广西大学
• 通讯作者： 覃诚 
• 发布时间：2025-02-08

摘要: 如何有效地应对儿童比例逐渐减少，已经是紧迫科学问题。本文基于“经济—人口—环境”组态框架，以中国地级城市为案例，以十年为间隔的多阶段组态视角，探究经济、人口与环境因素对中国儿童人口比例的时间维度变化，选取儿童占比为结果变量，经济发展、教育资源、基础设施、生育潜力、社会交往、空气污染为条件变量，共识别出六条组态路径，得出结论：①经济方面，非高经济发展和非高教育资源是2000-2020年间持续影响高儿童占比的因素。随着时间的推进，原本影响高儿童占比的非高基础设施条件，在2020年转变为高基础设施。在经济和教育条件落后的背景下，传统“多生”观念推动了高儿童占比，而经济发展则推动"优生"观念。②人口方面，2000-2010年间，非高育龄潜力是主要影响因素，而到了2020年高育龄潜力转变为核心条件。这表明随着增加对育龄妇女的社会支持，会促进育龄妇女生育儿童意愿。同时，2000至2020年期间，频繁的社会交往会持续促进高儿童占比。③环境方面，2000年间非高空气污染对高儿童占比的影响相对边缘，但到了2010-2020年，高空气污染成为了显著的影响因素。反映了早期对环境问题关注不足，生存需求高于环保。

Abstract: Effectively addressing the declining proportion of children has become an urgent scientific issue. Based on the "Economy-Population-Environment" configuration framework, this paper uses Chinese prefecture-level cities as case studies and adopts a multi-stage configuration perspective with ten-year intervals to explore the temporal changes in the proportion of children in China and the influence of economic, population, and environmental factors. The study selects the proportion of children as the outcome variable, and economic development, educational resources, infrastructure, fertility potential, social interactions, and air pollution as condition variables. Six configuration paths are identified, leading to the following conclusions:① Economic: Non-high economic development and non-high educational resources were factors that continuously influenced high child proportions between 2000 and 2020. Over time, non-high infrastructure conditions, which originally influenced high child proportions, changed to high infrastructure by 2020. In contexts of economic and educational backwardness, the traditional "more children" mentality drove high child proportions, while economic development promoted the "quality children" concept.② Population: From 2000 to 2010, non-high fertility potential was the main influencing factor, while by 2020, high fertility potential became the core condition. This suggests that increased social support for women of childbearing age would enhance their willingness to have children. Additionally, from 2000 to 2020, frequent social interactions continued to promote higher child proportions.③ Environment: In 2000, non-high air pollution had a relatively marginal impact on high child proportions. However, between 2010 and 2020, high air pollution became a significant influencing factor. This reflects earlier insufficient attention to environmental issues, with survival needs taking precedence over environmental protection.

• 来自： 覃诚
• 分类： 社会学
• 稿件状态： 已投稿期刊
• 引用： PSSXiv:202502.00195 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202502.00195V1)
  DOI:10.12451/202502.00195
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv.202502.00195
• 推荐引用方式： 覃诚,王雪薏.多因素对中国儿童人口比例的联动效应.哲学社会科学预印本平台:https://zsyyb.cn/abs/202502.00195.[PSSXiv:202502.00195V1] (点此复制)