论美国太平洋岛国战略在2024年的最新进展和对特朗普第二任期内美国太平洋岛国战略的展望分析

• 作者： 葛泽坤 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院

  2.  复旦大学美国研究中心
• 通讯作者： 葛泽坤 
• 发布时间：2025-03-05

摘要: 本文系统阐述了美国联合盟友与伙伴于2024年推进其太平洋岛国战略的最近进展，依次从“美国单边”“美国同盟友的双边协作”“美国联合盟国的三边部署”“美日印澳四边机制”和“美国在多边维度调动盟伴”出发，对拜登政府在执政最后一年推进太平洋岛国战略的各项举措，进行分领域的详细梳理。以之为基础，本文对特朗普第二任期内美国太平洋岛国战略的整体趋势与政策侧重进行科学展望。相较于拜登政府时期，特朗普政府的太平洋岛国战略将出现相当规模的收缩，但由于“遏止中国地区影响力的上升”和“对华开展硬实力威镊”的现实需要，特朗普政府在未来四年内不会重回后冷战时期对岛国地区的长期漠视态度，而是将继续发掘这一地区的军事与战略价值，同太平洋岛国保持一定水平的沟通合作。细化至分领域议题，特朗普第二任期内美国的太平洋岛国战略将呈现“加强，调整与减免并存”的显著特征。特朗普政府一方面会继续加强在特定领域同太平洋诸岛国的接触与合作力度；另一方面则将对拜登政府的相关举措进行增删调整，并大力减免美国就特定议题向岛国国家的项目和资金支出。最后，本文围绕“中国在太平洋岛国地区如何应对美国联合盟伴的‘阵营攻势’”提出了三项有针对性的政策建议，

Abstract: This paper systematically illustrates the latest advancement for the United States to push forward the Pacific Islands strategy together with allies and partners in 2024, and from respective levels of “the U.S.’s unilateral policy adoption”, “bilateral coordination between the U.S. and its allies”, “trilateral joint deployment among the U.S. and its allies”, “Quad mini-lateral cooperation structure” and “the U.S.’s mobilization of allies and partners under multilateral mechanisms”,  carries out a field-oriented detailed examination of diverse policies issued by the Biden administration to execute its self-designed Pacific Islands strategy during the last year of holding power. Based upon this analysis, this paper introduces scientific perspectives for the general trend and policy focuses of the U.S.’s Pacific Islands strategy during the second term of Trump presidency. Compared with the Biden administration, the Trump administration’s Pacific Islands strategy will show up shrinkage of considerable extent. However, due to the practical need to halt China’s growing regional influence and to project China-targeted hardline deterrence, the Trump administration won’t return to the ignoring attitude towards the Pacific Islands Region (PIR), which was long-lasting during the post-Cold War era. Instead, during the Trump second term, the United States will continue discovering the strategic and military value of this region and maintain certain level’s cooperation with Pacific Island Countries (PICs). For field-specific issues, the U.S.’s Pacific Islands strategy under the Trump 2.0 term will develop distinctive features of “reinforcement, adjustment and reduction coexistence”. That is to say, on one hand, the Trump administration will continue strengthening engagement and cooperation with various PICs on certain fields; on the other hand, this newly enrolled administration will carry out adjustments that contain both reinforcement and cut for the Biden administration’s certain measures, while massively reducing PICs-oriented program and monetary expenditure on representative issues. Lastly, this paper proposes three targeted policy advices about the proper way for China to deal with an upcoming “bloc offense” launched by the United States together with its allies and partners.

• 来自： 葛泽坤
• 分类： 政治学 >> 国际政治 政治学 >> 国际关系 政治学 >> 外交学
• 稿件状态： 已投稿期刊
• 引用： PSSXiv:202503.00189 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202503.00189V1)
  DOI:10.12451/202503.00189
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv.202503.00189
• 推荐引用方式： 葛泽坤.论美国太平洋岛国战略在2024年的最新进展和对特朗普第二任期内美国太平洋岛国战略的展望分析.哲学社会科学预印本平台:https://zsyyb.cn/abs/202503.00189.[PSSXiv:202503.00189V1] (点此复制)