后摩尔时代半导体技术的演进路径与颠覆性技术预测

• 作者： 关皓元 ¹ 马渊博 ¹ 陈相 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  广东省科学技术情报研究所
• 发布时间：2025-04-24

摘要: [目的/意义]当前，摩尔定律已达到性能极限，半导体工艺研发成本也随之大幅度增长，传统制程微缩红利正加速衰减，亟需颠覆性的技术创新打破技术瓶颈。聚焦后摩尔技术路径，为预测半导体的技术发展方向，提前进行产业布局，明确未来半导体的核心技术，具有重要意义。[方法/过程]通过构建半导体专利分析框架，研究LDA主题模型，结合Gartner技术成熟度曲线理论，以及DARPA的“电子复兴计划”评估框架方法，构建面向后摩尔时代的技术监测体系，识别出潜在颠覆性技术，建立ARIMA模型，预测出近10年可能出现的技术时间拐点。[结果/结论]研究创新性地提出磁性隧道、单电子晶体管、NEMS、MEMS、量子点器件等新型半导体器件在2026—2027年，系统级封装、硅通孔、玻璃通孔、TSV、MEMS等先进封装技术在2026等将成为关键转折点。研究结果为半导体产业战略布局提供决策依据。

Abstract: [Purpose/Significance] Currently, Moore's Law has reached its performance limit, and the R & D costs of chip processes have increased significantly. The dividends from traditional process miniaturization are decaying rapidly. There is an urgent need for disruptive technological innovation to break through the technical bottleneck. Focusing on the post - Moore semiconductor technology path is of great significance for predicting the technological development direction of chips, making early industrial layouts, and identifying the core technologies of future semiconductors.[Methods/Procedures] By constructing an analysis framework for chip patents, studying the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic model, combining with Gartner's Technology Maturity Curve theory and the evaluation framework of DARPA's "Electronics Resurgence Initiative", a technology monitoring system for the post - Moore era has been constructed to identify potential disruptive technologies. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model has been established to predict the possible technological inflection points in the next decade.[Results/Conclusions] The study innovatively proposes that new semiconductor devices such as magnetic tunnel junctions, single - electron transistors, Nano - Electro - Mechanical Systems (NEMS), Micro - Electro - Mechanical Systems (MEMS), and quantum dot devices will reach key turning points in 2026 - 2027. Advanced packaging technologies such as System - in - Package (SiP), Through - Silicon - Via (TSV), Through - Glass - Via (TGV), and MEMS will reach a crucial stage in 2026. The research results provide a decision - making basis for the strategic layout of the chip industry.

• 来自： 关皓元
• 分类： 信息资源管理
• 稿件状态： 已投稿期刊
• 引用： PSSXiv:202504.02993 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202504.02993V1)
  DOI:10.12451/202504.02993
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv.202504.02993
• 推荐引用方式： 关皓元,马渊博,陈相.后摩尔时代半导体技术的演进路径与颠覆性技术预测.哲学社会科学预印本平台:https://zsyyb.cn/abs/202504.02993.[PSSXiv:202504.02993V1] (点此复制)