自然灾害社会风险演变分析：驱动因素、阶段特征与内在规律

• 作者： 谢振华 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  湖南省社会科学院(湖南省人民政府发展研究中心)
• 发布时间：2024-05-08

摘要: 自然灾害给社会造成严重的人员伤亡、环境破坏、设施损毁等损害，同时也会带来社会心理、社会行为等干扰与破坏，形成危及社会稳定安全的社会风险。自然灾害社会风险生成演变需要满足一定的条件，这主要由自然灾害危害程度、社会风险载体脆弱程度、社会韧性能力等因素决定。这些因素推动社会风险向着蕴藏期、显露期、蔓延期和消减期四个阶段演变。自然灾害社会风险在其演变过程中又会呈现出一定的规律性，主要表现为：在社会风险承担方面呈现马太效应，在社会风险扩大方面呈现蝴蝶效应，在社会风险感知方面呈现涟漪效应，在社会风险传导方面呈现多米诺效应。

Abstract: Natural disasters cause serious casualties, environmental destruction, facility damage and the like to society. Meanwhile it will also bring about disturbance and damage to social psychology and social behavior, thus creating social risks that threaten social security and stability. The generation of a natural disaster and the evolution of it into social risks need to meet certain conditions. They are mainly determined by the degree of the natural disaster, the vulnerability of social risk carriers, social resilience and other factors. Such factors promote the evolution of social risks into four stages: hiding period, revealing period, spreading period and withering period. In their evolution process, natural-disaster-induced social risks will show certain regularities, especially in the following four aspects: the Matthew Effect presented in social risk taking, the Butterfly Effect in social risk expansion, the Ripple Effect in social risk perception and the Domino Effect in social risk transmission. Thus, acknowledging the regularities of natural-disaster-induced social risks could help to enhance the ability to prevent social risks by evading social disasters in advance.

• 来自： 谢振华
• 链接： https://kns.cnki.net/kcms2/article/abstract?v=8WLnD7pOpNFxf9xdH-jzHCHzWS6FB8qx3rlR-ypO1dR-..
• 分类： 公共管理学 >> 行政管理
• 稿件状态： 已在期刊出版
期刊名称： 《湘潭大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》 2023年 第3卷 第3期
• 引用： PSSXiv:202405.00116 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202405.00116V1)
  DOI:10.12451/202405.00116
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv.202405.00116
• 推荐引用方式： 谢振华.自然灾害社会风险演变分析：驱动因素、阶段特征与内在规律.湘潭大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2023(3).[PSSXiv:202405.00116V1] (点此复制)