制度演化视角下福建沿海地区渔业经济韧性研究

• 作者： 冷韵 ¹ 韦素琼 ^1，2 游小珺 ¹ 任之煌 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  福建师范大学-地理科学学院

  2.  福建师范大学-地理研究所
• 通讯作者： 韦素琼 
• 发布时间：2025-01-13

摘要: 以福建省沿海地区渔业为例，利用产值和产量对渔业韧性抵抗力进行测算，并结合基于稳健性-抵抗力-恢复力 （3Rs） 的韧性评估体系和制度演化理论构建分析框架，对渔业韧性差异的形成原因给予解释。研究发现：1） 不同类型冲击的影响下 （2006 年超大台风、2008 年金融危机、2017 年渔业产业升级），产值因受生产和供给双重影响波动明显，产量更多受生产影响，对自然灾害的反映更为剧烈。2） 台风影响具有区域性，主要影响宁德市区、福鼎市、福安市和霞浦县，使区域产量大幅减少。韧性抵抗力在经济危机和产业转型危机中的表现类似，其空间差异更受历史基础及制度演化影响。3） 沿海地区 25 个研究单元可以分为 5 类，渔业韧性的空间分布受海岸线长度的影响。每类区域在冲击下的韧性包括稳健性、抵抗力和恢复力的表现存在差异，制度演化的深度也存在差异。合理的制度演化模式能够缓解渔业资源缺乏对渔业发展的制约，增强经济韧性。高韧性区域因良性层叠和转化的制度演化模式而韧性高；韧性逐年变好区域通过对高韧性地区的战略跟随，也实现良性层叠和转化逐步提高韧性；低韧性和韧性逐年变差区域是对原有制度的不断厚化，影响韧性提高；韧性断崖式下降地区采用替代的制度演化模式，渔业不以提高经济韧性为目的，渔业经济韧性差。

Abstract: This study considers the fishery industry in the coastal area of Fujian Province as an example, measures the resilience resistance of the fishery industry using output value and output, and constructs an analytical framework by combining the "Robustness-Resistance-Recovery" resilience assessment framework and the theory of institutional change to give explanations for the formation of the differences in fishery resilience. The four types of gradually deepening institutional changes are layering (thickening and positive layering), conversion, and displacement. The robustness dimension of resilience corresponds to thickening, the resistance dimension corresponds to positive layering, and recovery corresponds to conversion or displacement. Three mainconclusions are drawn: 1) Under the influence of different types of shocks (the super-typhoon in 2006, the financial crisis in 2008, and the upgrading of the fishing industry in 2017), the output value fluctuates significantly owing to the dual effects of production and supply, and the output is more strongly affected by production and more drastically reflective of natural disasters. 2) A spatial regularity exists in the impact of regional crises (typhoons) on industrial resilience resistance; the closer to the disaster center, the poorer the performance of industrial resilience resistance. The economic and industrial transformation crises have a homogeneous effect on the fishery economy, and the spatial differences in the resilience of the fishery economy are more influenced by historical foundations and institutional evolution. 3) The 25 research units in coastal areas were divided into five categories. The spatial distribution of fishery resilience is affected by coastline length. High-resilience areas were mainly concentrated in the middle of the coastal region in the study units with longer coastlines. The resilience of the north and south ends improved from year to year, and the length of the coastline in the areas with lower resilience was shorter. Differences were noted in the performance of each region in terms of resilience to shocks, including robustness, resistance, and resilience, as well as differences in the depth of institutional change types. Regions that choose the right development path and the right mode of institutional change in a crisis are more resilient and help the region reduce resource constraints on fisheries development, even if it is a thickening of the original system that can defuse the crisis, whereas a few regions are less resilient in choosing a direction of institutional change that is separatedfrom the region’s industrial base, where new development paths have yet to take root. This study highlights the importance of regional institutional change in the formation of fishery resilience, provides a new perspective on how institutional change affects economic activity, and uses quantitative methods to investigate the relationship between institutional change and industrial resilience. In addition, this study has important implications for disaster response and risk management, helping firms and governments better prepare for and respond to potential economic shocks.

• 来自： 冷韵
• 分类： 地理学 >> 人文地理学
• 稿件状态： 已被期刊录用
• 引用： PSSXiv:202412.00126 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202412.00126V2)
  DOI:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.20240053
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv202412.00126
• 推荐引用方式： 冷韵,韦素琼,游小珺,任之煌.制度演化视角下福建沿海地区渔业经济韧性研究.哲学社会科学预印本平台:https://zsyyb.cn/abs/202412.00126.[PSSXiv:202412.00126V2] (点此复制)