制度演化视角下福建沿海地区渔业经济韧性研究

• 作者： 冷韵 ¹ 韦素琼 ^1，2 游小珺 ¹ 任之煌 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  福建师范大学-地理科学学院

  2.  福建师范大学-地理研究所
• 通讯作者： 冷韵 
• 发布时间：2024-12-03

摘要: 本研究以福建省沿海地区渔业为例，利用产值和产量对渔业韧性抵抗力进行测算，并结合基于稳健性-抵抗力-恢复力（3Rs）的韧性评估体系和制度演化理论构建分析框架，对渔业韧性差异的形成原因给予解释。主要得出三个结论：第一，不同类型冲击的影响下（2006年超大台风、2008年金融危机、2017年渔业产业升级），产值因受生产和供给双重影响波动明显，产量更多受生产影响，对自然灾害的反映更为剧烈。第二，台风影响具有区域性，主要影响宁德市区、福鼎市、福安市和霞浦县，使区域产量大幅减少。韧性抵抗力在经济危机和产业转型危机的影响对渔业经济有同质作用，渔业经济韧性抵抗力空间差异更受历史基础及制度演化影响。第三，沿海地区25个研究单元可以分为5类，渔业韧性的空间分布受海岸线长度的影响。每类区域在冲击下的韧性包括稳健性、抵抗力和恢复力的表现存在差异，制度演化的深度也存在差异。正确的制度演化模式帮助区域减少资源对渔业发展的限制，增强经济韧性。本文强调了区域制度演化在渔业韧性形成中的重要性，为理解制度变迁如何影响经济活动提供了新的视角。此外，本研究对于灾害应对和风险管理具有重要意义，有助于企业和政府更好地准备和应对潜在的经济冲击。

Abstract: This study takes the fishery industry in the coastal area of Fujian Province as an example, measures the resilience resistance of the fishery industry using output value and output, and constructs an analytical framework by combining “Robustness-Resistance- Recovery (3Rs)” resilience assessment framework and the theory of institutional change to give explanations for the formation of the differences in fishery resilience. There are four gradually deepening types of institutional change: layering (including thickening and positive layering), conversion and displacement. The robustness dimension of resilience corresponds to thickening, the resistance dimension corresponds to positive layering, and the recovery corresponds to conversion or displacement. There are three main conclusions drawn: 1) Under the influence of different types of shocks (the super typhoon in 2006, the financial crisis in 2008, and the upgrading of the fishing industry in 2017), output value fluctuates significantly due to the dual effects of production and supply, and output are more strongly affected by production and more drastically reflective of natural disasters. 2) There is a spatial regularity in the impact of regional crises (typhoons) on industrial resilience resistance, and the closer to the disaster center, the poorer the performance of industrial resilience resistance. The impact of economic crises and industrial transformation crises has a homogeneous effect on the fishery economy, and the spatial differences in the resilience resistance of the fishery economy are more influenced by historical foundations and institutional evolution. 3) The 25 research units in the coastal areas can be divided into 5 categories. The spatial distribution of fishery resilience is affected by the length of the coastline. High resilience areas are mainly concentrated in the middle of the coastal region in the study units with longer coastlines, the resilience of the north and south ends is getting better from year to year, and the length of the coastline in the areas with lower resilience is shorter. There are differences in the performance of each type of region in terms of its resilience to shocks, including robustness, resistance and resilience, as well as differences in the depth of institutional change types. Regions that chooses the right development path and the right mode of institutional change in a crisis is more resilient and helps the region to reduce resource constraints on fisheries development, even if it is a thickening of the original system that can defuse the crisis.Some regions, on the other hand, are less resilient in choosing a direction of institutional change that is divorced from the region’s industrial base, where new development paths have yet to take root. The novel highlights the importance of regional institutional change in the formation of fishery resilience, provides a new perspective for understanding how institutional change affects economic activity, and uses quantitative methods to investigate the relationship between institutional change and industrial resilience. In addition, this study has important implications for disaster response and risk management, helping firms and governments to better prepare for and respond to potential economic shocks.

• 来自： 冷韵
• 分类： 地理学 >> 人文地理学
• 稿件状态： 已被期刊录用
• 引用： PSSXiv:202412.00126 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202412.00126V1)
  DOI:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.20240053
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv.202412.00126
• 推荐引用方式： 冷韵,韦素琼,游小珺,任之煌.制度演化视角下福建沿海地区渔业经济韧性研究.哲学社会科学预印本平台:https://zsyyb.cn/abs/202412.00126.[PSSXiv:202412.00126V1] (点此复制)