中国经济南北差距演变及其收敛性评估

• 作者： 李峰波 ^1,2 程文浩 ^1,2 陈琴 ¹ 张博淳 ²
• 作者单位：
  1.  清华大学公共管理学院

  2.  清华大学纪检监察研究院

  3.  中国人民公安大学公安管理学院
• 通讯作者： 程文浩 
• 发布时间：2025-02-08

摘要: 南北差距逐步拉大，已经成为我国区域发展不平衡不充分的典型现象。文章使用1992—2020年夜间卫星灯光数据分析了我国南北差距及其动态演变特征，评估了其全局和局部收敛性，并探究了影响南北差距收敛性的主要因素。结果表明：①样本期内南北差距呈现出下降—上升的反复波动趋势，但2013年以后呈现出新一轮加速扩大趋势。②南方和北方地区间经历了从不存在俱乐部收敛到俱乐部收敛的过程，主要体现为南方发散和北方收敛。③南方和北方地区内部均存在明显的局部收敛特征，但不同地区收敛的稳态水平存在分化。④营商环境和创新水平的差距是造成南北方发展加速分化的主要因素，技术进步和创新水平是导致南方地区内部分化的主导力量，而产业结构变迁对缩小北方地区内部差距具有积极作用。研究结论为缩小南北差距和推动区域协调发展提供了有效的政策建议。

Abstract: The widening gap between the north and the south in China has become a typical phenomenon of unbalanced and inadequate regional development. This paper uses the nighttime satellite light data from 1992 to 2020 to analyze the North-South gap and its dynamic evolution characteristics, evaluates its global and local convergence, and explores the main factors affecting the convergence of the North-South gap. The empirical results show that: 1) During the sample period, the North-South gap showed a downward-upward trend of repeated fluctuations, but after 2013, it showed a new round of accelerated expansion trend. 2) The South and the North in China both experienced a process from non-existent club convergence to club convergence, which is mainly reflected divergence in the southern region and convergence in the northern region. 3) There are obvious local convergence characteristics in the southern and northern regions, but the steady-state level of convergence in different regions is differentiated. 4) The gap between the business environment and the innovation level is the main factor causing the accelerated differentiation between the northern and the southern regions. Technological progress and innovation level are the leading forces leading to the internal differentiation in the southern region, and the change of industrial structure has a positive effect on narrowing the internal gap in the northern region. This paper provides an effective policy reference for narrowing the gap between the northern and the southern regions and promoting regional coordinated development.

• 分类： 地理学 >> 综合地理学
• 稿件状态： 已在期刊出版
期刊名称： 《经济地理》 2024年 第12期 “区域经济与理论方法”专栏
• 引用： PSSXiv:202502.00178 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202502.00178V1)
  DOI:10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2024.12.001
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv.202502.00178
• 推荐引用方式： 李峰波,程文浩,陈琴,张博淳.中国经济南北差距演变及其收敛性评估.经济地理,2024(12).[DOI:10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2024.12.001] (点此复制)