全球供应链瓶颈对中国通货膨胀的影响研究

• 作者： 杨晨红 ¹ 徐泽群 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  中国计量大学
• 发布时间：2024-11-26

摘要: 在全球范围内通货膨胀问题不断凸显的大背景下，为了更好了解全球供应链瓶颈下的中国通货膨胀风险，本文以外汇储备、经济增长、消费者信心指数、国际原油价格作为控制变量，建立VAR实证模型，根据脉冲响应函数剖析全球供应链瓶颈对中国通货膨胀的影响并把握其潜在风险。研究发现：全球供应链瓶颈对中国通货膨胀存在正向影响。基于此，本文提出以下政策建议：优化供应链网络、提高可见性和预测能力、加强协同合作以及推动创新和效率提升，以期更加有效地管理和运营供应链，减轻对通货膨胀的压力。

Abstract: In the context of rising infl ation worldwide, in order to better understand China’s infl ation risk under the bottleneck of the global supply chain, the VAR empirical model is established with foreign exchange reserves, economic growth, consumer confi dence index and international crude oil price as control variables. According to impulse response function, the paper analyzes the impact of the global supply chain bottleneck on China’s infl ation and grasps its potential risk. It is found that the global supply chain bottleneck has a positive impact on China’s infl ation. Based on the empirical analysis, the following policy recommendations are made: to optimize the supply chain network, improve visibility and forecasting capacity, strengthen synergies and promote innovation and effi ciency, so as to manage and operate the supply chain more eff ectively and reduce infl ationary pressures.

• 分类： 理论经济学 >> 世界经济
• 稿件状态： 已在期刊出版
期刊名称： 《中国商论》 2024年 第21期
• 引用： PSSXiv:202411.02152 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202411.02152V1)
  DOI:10.19699/j.cnki.issn2096-0298.2024.21.159
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv.202411.02152
• 推荐引用方式： 杨晨红,徐泽群.全球供应链瓶颈对中国通货膨胀的影响研究.中国商论,2024(21).[DOI:10.19699/j.cnki.issn2096-0298.2024.21.159] (点此复制)