中国畜牧业新质生产力发展水平测度、动态演化与驱动因素研究

• 作者： 吕毅 ¹ 夏咏 ¹ 李先东 ^1,2 王福红 ^1,3 丁宁 ¹ 赵兰兰 ¹
• 作者单位：
  1.  新疆农业大学经济管理学院

  2.  新疆农业大学干旱区生态经济与畜牧 业高质量发展中心

  3.  兰州财经大学农林经济管理学院
• 通讯作者： 夏咏 
• 发布时间：2025-03-19

摘要: 新科技革命背景下，畜牧业新质生产力作为先进力量符合高质量发展的需求。理解其内涵、现状与驱动因素对加快畜牧业高质量发展至关重要。本文基于畜牧业科技生产力、绿色生产力、数字生产力三个维度，利用熵权TOPSIS法测度2013-2022年全国30个省份的畜牧业新质生产力发展水平，采用Dagum基尼系数、Markov链探究畜牧业新质生产力发展的地区差异及动态演化，并运用障碍因子诊断模型、地理探测器解析其内外生驱动因素。研究发现：（1）2013-2022年我国畜牧业新质生产力发展水平总体呈现稳步上升的趋势，但整体处于较低水平。分地区而言，区域畜牧业新质生产力发展水平呈现“东一中一西一东北"的递减格局。（2）畜牧业新质生产力发展水平存在明显的区域差异且总体均呈现不断提升的态势，其中造成总体差异的主要原因来源于区域内差异。（3）畜牧业新质生产力动态演进具有稳定性、缓慢性和向上转移倾向。（4）数字技术的发展与创新是推动畜牧业新质生产力发展的重要内生驱动因素；市场化程度、经济发展水平、产业结构、政府投资力度、家庭肉蛋奶消费水平和城镇化水平均是影响我国畜牧业新质生产力的主要外生驱动因素，且影响畜牧业新质生产力发展的主导因素从相对单一逐渐向多元转变。据此，未来应强化区域协同发展战略、精准施策缩小地区差异以及加强对内生障碍因素与外生驱动因素的识别与调控。重点突破影响现代畜牧业数字发展的薄弱环节，培育多元驱动主体。

Abstract: Under the backdrop of the new technological revolution, the new-quality productivity of animal husbandry, as an advanced force, conforms to the requirements of high-quality development. Comprehending its connotation, current status, and driving factors is of paramount significance for accelerating the high-quality development of animal husbandry. This paper measures the development level of the new-quality productivity of animal husbandry in 30 provinces across China from 2013 to 2022 based on three dimensions: technological productivity, green productivity, and digital productivity of animal husbandry, employing the entropy weight TOPSIS method. It also investigates the regional disparities and dynamic evolution of the new-quality productivity of animal husbandry by utilizing the Dagum Gini coefficient and Markov chain, and analyzes its endogenous and exogenous driving factors through the obstacle factor diagnosis model and the geographical detector. The research findings are as follows: (1) From 2013 to 2022, the development level of the new-quality productivity of animal husbandry in China has generally demonstrated a steadily ascending trend, but it remains at a relatively low level. Regionally, the development level of the new-quality productivity of animal husbandry presents a decreasing pattern from east to central, west, and northeast. (2) There exist notable regional differences in the development level of the new-quality productivity of animal husbandry, and the overall situation shows a continuous improvement trend. The main cause for the overall differences stems from intra-regional differences. (3) The dynamic evolution of the new-quality productivity of animal husbandry exhibits stability, slowness, and an upward transfer propensity. (4) The development and innovation of digital technology are significant endogenous driving factors for the advancement of the new-quality productivity of animal husbandry; the degree of marketization, economic development level, industrial structure, government investment intensity, household consumption level of meat, eggs, and milk, and urbanization level are all major exogenous driving factors influencing the new-quality productivity of animal husbandry in China. Moreover, the dominant factors influencing the development of the new-quality productivity of animal husbandry have gradually shifted from relatively singular to multiple. Accordingly, in the future, regional collaborative development strategies should be reinforced, precise policies should be implemented to narrow regional disparities, and the identification and regulation of endogenous obstacle factors and exogenous driving factors should be enhanced. Key efforts should be made to break through the weak links affecting the digital development of modern animal husbandry and cultivate multiple driving entities.

• 来自： 吕毅
• 分类： 农林经济管理 >> 农业经济管理
• 稿件状态： 未投稿
• 引用： PSSXiv:202503.01417 (或此版本 PSSXiv:202503.01417V2)
  DOI:10.12451/202503.01417
  CSTR:32012.36.PSSXiv202503.01417
• 推荐引用方式： 吕毅,夏咏,李先东,王福红,丁宁,赵兰兰.中国畜牧业新质生产力发展水平测度、动态演化与驱动因素研究.哲学社会科学预印本平台:https://zsyyb.cn/abs/202503.01417.[PSSXiv:202503.01417V2] (点此复制)